By Denise Shrivell, Founder of MediaScope - About Denise

As we head quickly to the middle of the year – I thought it was time to have a look at some predictions for 2010 and see if there is a glimpse of truth in any of the forecasts.

Here’s the article I published on MediaScope in early January……

Looking into a crystal ball for media has never been harder with rapid change and evolution now the norm.  One of the largest issues I hear when talking to colleagues is the time and effort it takes to keep up with the new products and services continually coming into the market.  The saying - 'the only constant is change' - has never been more true.  While we look forward to 2010 and try to make some predictions, one of the most exciting things is that unknown element which we will all be speaking about in just a short 12 months.  Here are my punts on the year ahead……

More non-traditional media looking to monetise through advertising.  Any brand with the potential to attract a compelling audience can create a platform for advertisers.  Increasingly we will see non-traditional media developing their own advertising revenue models placing increasing pressure on traditional publishers and their previously taken for granted share of the ad revenue pie.

Rise of the ‘long tail’ and emerging advertising opportunities.  Advertising buyers (agencies, direct and small business) are increasingly looking for cost effective, highly targeted and engaged audiences where they can achieve cut through and outside the square, flexible, solutions for their paid advertising messages.  The big end of town in the advertising trading market ie advertising agencies and major media vendors are largely not geared to effectively meet this increasing need.  Resources such as MediaScope which connects advertising buyers and these long tail, new and emerging advertising sellers and the Audit Bureaux of Australia’s new web audit service is providing a greater trading environment for this often neglected end of the market.  With this, small and independent advertising sellers will need to meet the needs of advertising buyers by developing strong commercial strategies and presenting their opportunities in a knowledgeable and professional manner.  MediaScope's on on one consultancy services can help! See more information here.

Media Measurement & Audience Analysis.  The big topic of the year - better methodology and standards on media and audience centric measurement across all media - outdoor, online, TV, radio, print.  Most media channels are currently debating their way forward on audience and traffic measurement and the need to meet advertisers increasingly stringent return on investment objectives.  The next step is integrated audience measurement across multi-media platforms and an understanding of how different media channels impact each other.  For the industry to consolidate its position and grow we need to see action on this issue in 2010.

The National Broadband Network (NBN) – The NBN has far reaching consequences for our entire industry.  Expect (and hope) for more clarity and action on the Government's plans for the NBN in the coming 12 months. 

Could this finally be the year of the mobile? Mobile technology is exciting and ever evolving and the audience is established.  There is finally recognition from advertisers about the marketing and sales potential. Though consumer usage costs are still quite high – let's see if 2010 is finally the long awaited year!

Recognition that advertising cannot be the only revenue stream.  It finally became apparent during GFC that advertising is not the only way to generate revenue through media and in some cases cannot be relied upon alone.  Publishers are becoming more transparent in their forward plans.  Rupert Murdoch perhaps the most vocal in his need to place some online content behind a paywall.  Expect to see more publishers diversify to a variety of revenue channels in 2010.

Social Media - in 2009 we decided social media was not a fad and was here to stay. Businesses are increasingly adopting social media as an additional marketing and customer management channel.  We have seen phenomenal traffic growth of Twitter and Facebook but a decline in previous heavy hitter - MySpace.  Expect social media platforms to come and go but the general use of this media to rise.  Already foursquare.com is shaping up as one to watch in 2010. (or is it?)  These busineses will also need to get more serious about their revenue models.

More blurring between advertising and editorial - I notice ads disguised as editorial more and more and an increasing breakdown between church (editorial) and state (marketing and advertising).  Consumers are turning away from traditional forms of advertising so marketers are naturally looking for more integrated executions to reach their audience - and media is running to these dollars (ofcourse).  Rationalisation of editorial resources means PR generated material is in some cases, repackaged, reprinted and represented as news.  Does the average consumer notice this increasing 'blur' and do they care about the integrity of the information they are provided?

More market rationalisation.  There is an oversupply of available advertising across some parts of the media market.  This is particularly apparent in online where the bottom has fallen out of the CPM/display market (combined with decreasing clickthrough rates and lack of brand measurement) and there are some pretty thin magazines around.  Publishers will need to better manage their yield by decreasing supply and placing upward pressure on rates.  We will see this manifest in many ways - decreasing amount of available advertising placements on major portals, closures and consolidation, joint ventures rather than new site launches (why replicate?) and increasing non-advertising related revenue models.

We look to 2010 from a very different place to just 12 months ago.  There is confidence in the market but still a level of sensible caution – it is going to be an interesting and hopefully more successful year for everyone.

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